amynicole – Google admitted that its Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system failed to send sufficient warnings during Turkey’s devastating 2023 earthquake. The quake struck southeast Turkey on February 6, 2023, registering a magnitude of 7.8. More than 55,000 people died, and over 100,000 were injured as buildings collapsed while many were asleep.
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The AEA system could have sent its highest alert level, called “Take Action,” to around 10 million people within 98 miles of the epicenter. This alert provides up to 35 seconds of warning, enough time to seek safety. However, Google sent only 469 Take Action warnings during the first quake.
Google’s system works on Android devices, which make up over 70% of phones in Turkey. It uses data from millions of phones to detect shaking and estimate earthquake strength. The system’s “Take Action” warning triggers a loud alarm, overrides Do Not Disturb modes, and demands immediate attention. A less urgent “Be Aware” alert informs users of lighter shaking but does not override silent modes.
Despite the system being live during the quake, it significantly underestimated the shaking. For the first earthquake, Google’s system estimated the magnitude between 4.5 and 4.9, far below the actual 7.8. As a result, the severe alerts failed to reach most users. A second large quake later that day also received an underestimated response. The system sent Take Action alerts to just 8,158 phones and Be Aware alerts to under four million users.
Google researchers later published their findings in the journal Science, highlighting limitations in the detection algorithms. They acknowledged that tuning alerts for large magnitude quakes remains a global challenge for earthquake early warning systems.
Improvements and Challenges Ahead for Google’s Earthquake Alerts
Following the Turkey earthquake, Google adjusted its algorithms and re-simulated the event. The updated system generated 10 million Take Action alerts for high-risk users and 67 million Be Aware alerts for those farther from the epicenter. Google emphasizes that AEA is a supplementary tool and not a replacement for national early warning systems.
Some experts, however, express concern about over-reliance on technology that is still developing. Elizabeth Reddy, assistant professor at Colorado School of Mines, criticized the slow release of performance data. She stressed that the delay was unacceptable given the loss of life and the importance of timely warnings.
Harold Tobin, director of the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network, urged transparency about system performance. He warned that some regions might mistakenly rely solely on Google’s alerts instead of maintaining their own robust warning systems.
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Google states that post-event analysis has improved AEA’s accuracy. The system now issues alerts in nearly 100 countries, demonstrating its expanding global reach. However, questions remain about its reliability during major events.
Google also monitored AEA’s performance during a 2025 earthquake in Myanmar but has yet to share findings. The Turkey earthquake highlighted the urgent need for constant testing, algorithm refinement, and clear communication about the capabilities and limits of such technology.
Moving forward, Google aims to refine AEA further to enhance alert speed and accuracy, especially during large magnitude quakes. Combining advanced tech with government warning systems and public preparedness is essential to saving lives. Google’s transparency and ongoing improvements are key steps toward building trust in earthquake early warning technologies worldwide.
